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Hit rate (accuracy)

The hit rate is the share of predictions in which the direction a forecasting model predicted (up or down) matched the realised direction. AI.
Contents
  1. 1.Key points
  2. 2.Formula / calculation
  3. 3.Interpretation
  4. 4.Pitfalls
  5. 5.Frequently asked questions

Key points

  • The close the model predicts for the next day is compared with today’s close to set the predicted direction; if the realised close moves the same way the forecast counts as a hit.
  • 50% is coin-toss level; a meaningful model must stay above that with a sufficient sample (at least 30–60 forecasts).
  • a high hit rate on few samples can be luck.

Formula / calculation

Hit rate = Number of hits / Total forecasts × 100. Days with zero realised movement are excluded. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = Mean(|Actual − Forecast| / Actual) × 100 measures magnitude error regardless of direction.

Interpretation

50% is coin-toss level; a meaningful model must stay above that with a sufficient sample (at least 30–60 forecasts). The Yatırımcı.AI track record page reports the last 90 days’ hit rate and error by model and by stock.

Pitfalls

a high hit rate on few samples can be luck. Directional accuracy says nothing about the size of moves; small correct moves may not offset large incorrect ones. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and forecasts are not investment advice.

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Frequently asked questions

The hit rate is the share of predictions in which the direction a forecasting model predicted (up or down) matched the realised direction.

Hit rate = Number of hits / Total forecasts × 100. Days with zero realised movement are excluded. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = Mean(|Actual − Forecast| / Actual) × 100 measures magnitude error regardless of direction.

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