Live Fund Estimate Accuracy
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How the accuracy record is kept
At every session close (18:15) we store the estimated return we produced for every fund and compare it with the official price published the next day. This page shows the last 90 days by fund and coverage ratio; no record is corrected afterwards.
Frequently asked questions
How is directional accuracy calculated?
An estimate counts as a hit when the estimated and official returns have the same sign (both positive or both negative). Zero returns are evaluated by their sign.
What is the mean absolute error?
For each estimate we take the absolute difference between the estimated and official return and average it; it is expressed in percentage points.
Why is the error larger for low-coverage funds?
Coverage is the share of the portfolio with a known intraday price. When foreign stocks, bonds or deposits cannot be priced, the estimate reflects only part of the portfolio.
Does past accuracy carry into the future?
No. The record exists to show transparently how reliable the method has been; future deviations may differ. This is not investment advice.
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